​Data company predict Man City as PL champions and Palace for drop

Published on: 02 October 2017

Data company Gracenote Sports, who specialise in such forecasts, have updated their predicted title winners from Chelsea to Manchester City, while Crystal Palace's fate is relegation, reports BBC Sport.

Gracenote uses its Euro Club Index ranking of top-flight clubs and then runs season simulations one million times to predict the final table.

City have been given a 47% chance of winning the league, United have a 24% chance and Chelsea 13%.

"Unsurprisingly, the teams which were projected to finish in the top-six pre-season still are, but the exceptional starts of the two Manchester clubs have improved their expected points and positions at the end of the season," said Gracenote Sports head of analysis Simon Gleave.

United's and Tottenham's form has pushed Arsenal down from third into fifth, with Liverpool staying sixth, while reigning champions Chelsea have dropped to third and Spurs stay fourth in the final Champions League spot.

Crystal Palace have lost all of their seven league games without scoring a goal and defeat in their next game against Chelsea will mean only the Manchester United team from 1931 will have gone on a longer losing streak in the top-flight.

Gracenote give the Eagles a 72% chance of being relegated.

"A start like Palace have had, even taking account of playing at both Manchester clubs and Liverpool, is going to be very tough to bounce back from and Palace are currently exhibiting a similar profile to Sunderland at this stage last season," said Gleave.

Huddersfield were predicted to finish bottom at the start of the season and Gracenote thinks they will continue to fall down the table, finishing the season in 19th with a 43% chance of relegation.

Bournemouth are currently in 19th and are predicted to move up just one place to 18th, with the Cherries given a 37% chance of going down.

Swansea had been tipped for a mid-table finish by Gracenote but just one win in their opening fixture has seen them drop to 17th in the predicted table and in line for another relegation battle.

Sunday's defeat to Burnley leaves Everton languishing in 17th but Gracenote's prediction sees them eventually finish seventh.

Burnley have been one of the surprise packages so far, currently in sixth, after their best ever start to a Premier League campaign. They had been tipped for the drop by Gracenote, but they are now predicted to finish in ninth.

Another tipped for the drop had been Watford, but they are also doing better than expected and projected to finish 13th, while Newcastle are performing more or less as expected in mid-table.

Source: tribalfootball.com

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