Using Stats to Project Which Star Will Win This Season's Premier League Golden Boot

Published on: 28 February 2017

Harry Kane won the Premier League's Golden Boot last season, the first Englishman to finish top of the goalscoring charts since Kevin Phillips at the turn of the century. But when the Tottenham star was sidelined for two months in September, his chances of holding onto the award looked decidedly bleak, especially with others banging in the goals elsewhere.


Now, though, it looks distinctly possible as the 23-year-old hits new heights in front of goal.

Kane's run of goals after returning to action in November and his recent flurry of 10 Premier League goals since Christmas in only nine appearances have put him joint top of the goalscoring charts, despite playing several games fewer than his Golden Boot rivals.


Taking into account the rate at which he's scored his goals so far this season and applying that to the remaining fixtures, it's possible to predict that Kane will finish the campaign on 27 goals.


That would be a personal best for him after netting 21 and 25 in 2014/15 and 2015/16 respectively, and should earn him a second successive Golden Boot if the same projection technique is applied to the other players in the hunt.

Arsenal favourite Alexis Sanchez would end up on 26 Premier League goals, while Everton powerhouse Romelu Lukaku would get 25. Diego Costa and Zlatan Ibrahimovic would finish on 24 and 23 respectively, while Sunderland's Jermain Defoe would be the sixth player to hit 20.


Projected Top 10 Premier LeagueGoalscorers for 2016/17:


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