Big Sam Has Never Been in a Worse Position But His Record Suggests There Is Still Hope for Palace

Published on: 07 February 2017

Crystal Palace manager Sam Allardyce saw brief hope from last month's 2-0 win over Bournemouth turn into yet more despair as he witnessed his team get hammered 4-0 at home by relegation rivals Sunderland at the weekend - even after snatching one of the Black Cats' best players in left-back Patrick van Aanholt just a few days earlier.


Big Sam has never been relegated from the Premier League since first arriving in the top flight in 2001 and has a reputation for saving teams with late season miracles, but the situation he now finds himself in at Selhurst Park is truly dire to say the least.

Only goal difference is currently keeping the Eagles off the very bottom of the table after 24 games, and yet there remains at least a glimmer of hope. It is true that Allardyce has never been in charge of a team in a lower position with a worse points tally at this stage, but it is the same set of circumstances from which he was able to rescue Sunderland last season.


Back in his very first season as a Premier League manager, Allardyce's Bolton were 17th with 25 points. They were to stay up in 16th place with 40 points, although did briefly drop into the relegation zone after the 24 game mark.


The following campaign and struggling once more Bolton managed a remarkable haul of 23 points from their final 14 games to condemn West Ham to the dreaded drop with the highest relegation points tally in Premier League history.

In later years, Allardyce guided a Blackburn side worryingly sat in 18th place with 23 points after 24 games to the safety of 15th with 41 points by the time 2008/09 concluded.


The Sunderland team he took over in October 2015 had a record to match Palace's current record after 24 games - a 19-point tally only good enough for 19th place. That Sunderland side managed 20 points in their 14 games to finish 17th, two points clear of the bottom three.


Sunderland were actually four points adrift of safety after 24 games a year ago, while Palace are currently only two adrift - just a single win away from escaping.

When faced with the threat of relegation, Allardyce has always steered his teams to a far greater points per game average in the final 14 games than the first 24. That was particularly the case in 2002/03 at Bolton when the Trotters took 1.64 points per game from their run-in, compared to just 0.86 points per game by early February.


Last season, Sunderland took 1.43 points per game in the final 14 fixtures to save themselves, and Palace will now have to do something similar to ensure Championship football isn't back at Selhurst Park in 2017/18.


The Eagles will need to increase their points per game average for the rest of the season from 0.79 to at least 1.21 to have a chance of survival, while upping it to 1.5 will take the team to 40 points and all but guarantee it. A surge as good asBolton's 14 years ago would be a bonus.

It's a real challenge for Palace, but not yet an impossible one.


Overview of Sam Allardyce's Premier League Relegation Battles:



Points Per Game From Allardyce Teams Split Between First 24 Gamesand Run-In:


*Allardyce took over from another manager during first 24 games

To continue the discussion on Twitter follow @jamiespencer155


Visit www.facebook.com/jamiespencer155

Comments