History Shows How Only a Monumental Collapse Stands Between Chelsea and a Fifth Premier League Title

Published on: 07 February 2017

Chelsea saw their advantage atop the Premier League table remain at nine points at the weekend after an important win over London rivals Arsenal, with Tottenham also claiming victory to just about keep Antonio Conte's team in sight.

Time to catch the Blues is fast running out, though. There are just 14 rounds of fixtures of the 2016/17 campaign remaining, and Chelsea's current leading margin combined with what history has previously shown us suggests only a monumental collapse now stands between a fifth Premier League title, sixth overall, making its way to Stamford Bridge.

In 24 completed Premier League seasons to date, the club occupying top spot after 24 games has only failed to go on and become champions on six occasions. In an even stronger more recent trend, it is just one club (Arsenal - 2013/14) since 2003that has failed to convert first place at this advanced stage of the campaigninto the title.

Arsenal were also the guilty party the last time before then that a club blew itafter 24 games (2002/03). Manchester United have twice given up leads (1997/98 and 2001/02), while Aston Villa and Newcastle let top spot slip in 1992/93 and 1995/96 respectively.

In terms of the size of leads, Chelsea would have to repeat Newcastle's almighty second half collapse from 21 years ago not to finish the season with the trophy in hand.

Kevin Keegan's Magpies were nine points ahead of Manchester United with 24 games of the 1995/96 campaign played, only to be caught and lose a title that had seemed destined for St James' Park. That lead is the same as Chelsea's now, but what happened to Newcastle is definitely the anomaly when considering the outcome of every other Premier League season.

For example, when Aston Villa lost the lead in 1992/93 it was only a two-point advantage. Likewise, Manchester United gave up just a one-point lead in 2001/02, while it had been four in 1997/98. Newcastle aside, Arsenal's five-point advantage in 2002/03 is the largest lead after 24 games of a Premier League season that anyone has yet blown.

The Gunners also remain the only team to have lost a lead at this stage and finish lower than second place, dropping all the way down to fourth in 2013/14 having been two points ahead of the chasing pack in early February - a 5-1 thrashing at Liverpool in game 25 marked the end.

Only a handful of times has the leading club's margin after 24 games actually been bigger than Chelsea's currently is. Manchester United had 12-point and 13-point leads in 1993/94 and 2000/01 respectively, while previous Chelsea generations had 10-point and 15-point leads in 2004/05 and 2005/06 - each of Jose Mourinho's first two seasons at the club.

The last time Chelsea were crowned Premier League champions, when Mourinho returned to Stamford Bridge, the gap after 24 games was seven points. This time last year, Leicester had opened up a five-point gap atop the table and managed to hold on until May.

With 17 wins to show for their last 19 Premier League games, all Chelsea must do now is hold their form over the remaining three months of the season and the title will be sewn up once more. It would be almost completely unprecedented for them to throw it away now.